Breaking down the NCAA tournament

Assuming that these are the conference champions of their respective conferences, here are my rankings of the potential at-large and bubble teams for the 2007 NCAA tournament:

Conference champions:

America East - Albany
ACC - UNC
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Atlantic 10 - Massachusetts
Big East - Pittsburgh
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Ohio State
Big 12 - Oklahoma State
Big West - Long Beach State
CAA - Drexel
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon League - Butler
Ivy League - Harvard
MAAC - Marist
MAC - Ohio
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts
MEAC - Florida A&M
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois
Mountain West - Air Force
Northeast - Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley - Samford
Pac 10 - UCLA
Patriot - Holy Cross
Southeastern - Florida
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC - Jackson State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
West Coast - Gonzaga
WAC - Nevada

At-large teams (1-34 are in, 35-50 are out)

1. Wisconsin
2. Arizona
3. Kansas
4. Alabama
5. Duke
6. Texas A&M
7. Notre Dame
8. Clemson
9. West Virginia
10. Tennessee
11. LSU
12. Oregon
13. Washington State
14. Southern Cal
15. Florida State
16. Northern Iowa
17. Washington
18. Maryland
19. UNLV
20. Texas
21. Arkansas
22. Missouri State
23. Kansas State
24. Wichita State
25. Connecticut
26. Michigan State
27. Villanova
28. Missouri
29. Purdue
30. California-Berkeley
31. Illinois
32. Kentucky
33. Georgia Tech
34. Georgetown

-------------

35. Virginia
36. Marquette
37. Michigan
38. Xavier
39. Creighton
40. Dayton
41. Indiana State
42. Saint Louis
43. Texas Tech
44. Fresno State
45. Providence
46. Appalachian State
47. Virginia Commonwealth
48. Syracuse
49. North Carolina State
50. New Mexico State

--Dave

01/04/07 Recap

USC has finally developed something resembling a basketball program. In fact, a very good one. The excitement at Southern Cal seems to be pointed toward the future, with two of the top recruits in the country in the next two years committed to wearing Cardinal and Gold. But the Trojans have managed a phenomenal start to the 2006-2007 season. The Trojan's start hasn't garnished any national attention; as of this week's AP and Coaches Polls, USC has a combined 0 votes, despite handling then-#14 Washington last week. Led in scoring by junior small forward Nick Young, the Trojans compiled an impressive 10-3 record against tough competition in OOC, and are off to a 2-1 start in the Pac-10.

Well, USC showed up tonight, handing #16 Oregon team its first loss, in Eugene, Oregon. Freshman Taj Gibson led the charge for the Trojans with 18 points, 13 rebounds, and 7 blocked shots. Even more amazing, he only was charged with one foul.

Give the Trojans some credit, please. They deserve it.

01/04/07 Picks

01/04/07 Picks:
Overall Record (14-9)
No time for scores, I'm late for work:

@ETSU over Lipscomb
Pitt over @Syracuse
@Indiana State over Creighton
@Providence over Marquette
@Wichita State over Bradley
Southern Illinois over @Drake
Southern Cal over @Oregon
@Memphis over Cincy
Michigan State over @Iowa
Arizona over @Washington


--Dave

14 games

Louisville @ #17 Notre Dame - The Cardinals have bounced back nicely after losing consecutive home games, by winning 5 straight. However, the lost their only road game to this point in the season.

Kansas State @ Xavier - Freshman Bill Walker makes this squad a legitimate tourney team, and a very dangerous one to the "Big Dogs" of the Big 12. The last 5 games have been brutal for the Musketeers, losing three (@Creighton, @ Cincy, at home to Bucknell) and winning two (Arizona State and Illinois, both at home).

Northwestern @ Penn State - This battle of typical Big 10 cellar teams takes on a new meaning this year. Northwestern's 3 losses have been by a combined 9 points, and Penn State's 4 losses have been by an average of 6 points. Could we be seeing two decent teams? Naw.

#23 Clemson @ Florida State - Clemson, as everyone knows, is boasting a 14-game winning streak to begin this season. Three of those games were on the road, against decent competition. Those 14 wins come by an average of 19 points. FSU has lost only two games: at Pittsburgh, and at Wisconsin. Since then, they have won 8 straight, including a win over then-#1 Florida, and a 30-point rout of Providence.

Chattanooga @ Furman - These SoCon contenders meet for the first of two times this year, and both come in with .500 records and winless in Southern Conference play. Looming in front of each of these teams in a few days is a SoCon powerhouse. On January 6th, Chattanooga hosts Appalachian State (11-3, 3-0). On January 10th, Furman hosts Davidson (12-3, 3-0). Both teams need a win to take positive momentum into the conference season.

Villanova @ #25 West Virginia - A rarity for BCS conference teams, Villanova played 7 of its 12 OOC games on the road. They are rewarded with an RPI of 12. They should be well-prepared for a tough Big East schedule. The Mountaineers have demonstrated that they can win at home, handing then-#9 Connecticut its first loss.

DePaul @ St. John's - At home, the Blue Demons are 8-0, with wins over Kansas, Wake Forest, and California. On the road, they are 1-5, with losses to Northwestern, Bradley, and UAB. On the other hand, St. John's can't beat anyone who is anyone, no matter where the game is. The high point of the year for the Red Storm was a loss to Texas, if that says anything.

Rutgers @ Seton Hall - Things are finally starting to look better for Rutgers. After losing their first five DI games, they have won six of seven. Four of Seton Hall's eight wins have come against team outside the top 300 in RPI.

New Mexico @ TCU - Don't kid yourself. Neither of these teams will challenge Air Force.

Illinois @ Michigan - The Wolverines can't afford consecutive losses at home. Look for Michigan to make a statement, following their so-called "soft" OOC schedule.

Evansville @ Northern Iowa - In the MVC, holding home-court is everything. UNI needs to avoid a letdown coming off the huge win at Wichita State.

Air Force @ Colorado State - Both teams have won 9 straight. CSU is coming off its biggest win yet, a road triumph over Chattanooga. Remember back in the day, when AFA was blowing out BCS schools right and left? They shouldn't lose more than one MWC game.

Gonzaga @ Virginia - After tonight, one of these teams will be headed back in the right direction. The other will probably be a bubble team come March.

Hofstra @ NC-Wilmington - Hofstra seems to have turned around since an 0-3 start, winning 8 of 9. But what about the Seahawks? Last year's CAA champs are 3-7, and not looking at all like a CAA contender.

01/03/07 Picks:
Overall record (6-3)
at Notre Dame 76, Louisville 61
Kansas State 70, at Xavier 68
Northwestern 82, at Penn State 78
at Florida State 85, Clemson 80
at Furman 72, Chattanooga 66
at West Virginia 72, Villanova 71
Depaul 86, at St. John's 66
at Seton Hall 62, Rutgers 61
New Mexico 65, at TCU 59
at Michigan 78, Illinois 60
at Northern Iowa 69, Evansville 56
Air Force 70, at Colorado State 45
Gonzaga 87, at Virginia 81
Hofstra 67, at UNC-Wilmington 51

Back at it

Well, I've decided to resurrect this thing, after about a year off. A lot has happened in the past year to keep me from posting, but I've been able to keep up with everything.

Quick Recap so far:

My Davidson boys are off to a 12-3, 3-0 start, and boast and RPI of 27. Once again, they have established themselves as the team to beat in the Southern Conference.

Well...maybe the "co-team to beat." Appalachian State, after starting with a loss to the lowly Demon Deacons of Wake Forest, have compiled a 11-3, 3-0 record. The Mountaineers' last 4 wins have come over Virginia, Central Florida, Vanderbilt, and Virginia Commonwealth, with a combined record of 36-12. All four wins were away from Boone, NC, as well.

The Missouri Valley Conference is looking very jumbled, as usual. All ten MVC teams have winning records. Entering conference play, all ten also had RPI's of under 100. The Valley, however, is being characterized not by its success, but by its collapses. Creighton, for instance, was nationally ranked headed into the season, and was the consensus favorite to win the MVC. Right now, Creighton sits at 8-4, with underachieving losses to Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno St., and Hawaii. Wichita State was, two weeks ago, ranked #8 in both the AP and the ESPN/USA TODAY Coaches polls. Since then, they have recorded four consecutive losses.

Today's Featured Games:

Miami (Florida) @ UMass - It's just not The U's year. Let's just hope for a peaceful game, with no brawls.

NC-Greensboro @ NC State - All of the Wolfpack's losses are "good", except the bad one at Cincy. They also boast a number of bad wins: Wofford by 4, East Carolina by 7, Gardner-Webb by 12. The G-men are trying to extend a six-game winning streak. If they do so tonight, they will establish themselves as another SoCon contender. They're 3-1 in conference play, with road wins at Furman and GSU, upper tier SoCon teams.

South Florida @ UConn - Two notorious soft-schedule teams collide. I give the advantage to the Huskies.

Auburn @ Southern Miss - Both teams have won the games they were supposed to, and lost the games they were supposed to. That, in the eyes of the tournament committee, spells one thing. NIT.

Mississippi State @ Missouri - The Bulldogs lost to the unimpressive George Mason three days ago. Consecutive losses would kill what momentum they had going into SEC play. After starting a perfect 9-0, the Tigers have lost 2 of 3, losing on the road against Purdue, and at hoem against Illinois.

Missouri State @ Bradley - In a key MVC matchup between 10-win teams, look for Missouri State to control basically every aspect of this game. Bradley's senior leading scorer and one of the best three-point shooters in the country, Jeremy Crouch, is sidelined for 4-6 weeks with an injury. JC has been the fire underneath this team for quite a while, it's sad to see his senior year mostly taken from him.

Tulsa @ Arkansas - Tulsa is probably the worst 9-win team in the country. Their best win is over Oral Roberts, if that says something. Also, they haven't played in 10 days. Look for Arkansas to dominate.

Prarie View A&M @ Alcorn State -
Prarie View A&M: 0-10 vs. DI
Alcorn State: 0-10 vs. DI
Gee, I can't wait.

Winthrop @ Texas A&M - Sometimes Billy Gilliespie fails to make sense to me. As a BCS school, scheduling Winthrop is one of the worst things you can do. It's a lose-lose situation. Winthrop's losses came at UNC, Maryland, and Wisconsin; by an average of seven points. Why, Billy, why?

01/02/07 Picks:
Overall Record: (0-0)

at UMass 70, Miami (Fla.) 57
at NC State 72, NC-Greensboro 67
at Connecticut 85, South Florida 68
Auburn 61, at Southern Miss 58
at Missouri 78, Mississippi State 61
Missouri State 80, at Bradley 70
at Arkansas 84, Tulsa 69
at Alcorn State 58, Prarie View A&M 43
Winthrop 62, at Texas A&M 61

--Dave